Dating the euro area business cycle artis

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Business cycle chronologies offer reference points for empirical studies used as benchmarks for business cycle and recession theory.

Note: CEPR Recession shading for quarters follows the trough method used by FRED to compute NBER Recession Inndicators for the United States (see here).

Several other key macroeconomic aggregates have also been decreasing markedly since the third quarter of 2011, such as euro-area consumption, investment and employment.

Source: Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)Karl Whelan – a member of the Committee – writes that given the small size of the declines in GDP reported by Eurostat, you might question whether the CEPR committee’s recession call is a marginal one or whether it may be reversed after the data get revised.

Source: Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)The CEPR Committee concluded that economic activity in the euro area peaked in the third quarter of 2011 and that the euro area had been in recession since then.

The third quarter of 2011 marked the end of an expansion that began in the second quarter of 2009 and lasted 10 quarters.

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